Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan: Is Putin Already 10 Steps Ahead?!

Commentary: Trump’s Ukraine Peace Deal Reveals a Well-Timed Russian Move

Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan: Is Putin Already 10 St...

BIRMINGHAM, England – The situation in Ukraine just keeps getting more complicated. According to international security professor Stefan Wolff, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy finds himself in a tough spot, practically forced to the negotiating table despite what appears to be a deeply flawed peace process orchestrated by the U.S.

This whole situation started with a U.S.-brokered deal to end the war in Ukraine. This deal, allegedly hammered out in secret with Moscow, initially looked like a take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum aimed squarely at Zelenskyy. It wasn't until President Trump himself stepped in and said the agreement wasn't his "final offer" that things calmed down slightly. Kyiv and its allies understandably rejected the draft, seeing it as tilted too heavily in Moscow's favor. We're now told discussions on an "updated and refined peace framework" are ongoing with Ukraine, but the damage, in terms of trust, might already be done.

What's really interesting is the timing of this leaked 28-point plan. Just before the details came out, Trump seemed to be finally following through on his threats to sanction Russia for its invasion and force them to negotiate in good faith. He even slapped sanctions on two of Russia’s oil giants, effective November 21st, although these came with waivers delaying enforcement into next year. He also dangled the threat of secondary sanctions on their foreign customers, which would have hit countries like India, China, and even some in Europe pretty hard. It even looked like he was greenlighting legislation giving him even more power to impose sanctions. The pressure was definitely on.

But here's where it gets predictable. This aligns with a pattern we've seen repeatedly: Whenever the U.S. president appears to be taking a tougher stance, Russia conveniently signals a renewed willingness to talk about a deal on Ukraine. We saw this happen in April, May, July, and August. Every time Trump looked like he was about to break things off with Putin, the Russian president somehow managed to pull him back in – often with a well-timed phone call or even the promise of a summit, like the one in Alaska back in August.

It's becoming clear that these moves to appear engaged in peace negotiations have repeatedly saved Putin from facing more serious consequences from the U.S. in support of Ukraine. It's a clever strategy, and frankly, it seems to be working. The origins of the leaked plan are also raising eyebrows. Apparently, it stems from an October meeting between U.S. special envoy Steve Wittkoff, Jared Kushner, and Kirill Dmitriev, a close ally of Putin who heads one of Russia’s sovereign wealth funds. The plan wasn't even drafted through the usual inter-agency process, which would have involved the State Department, the Defense Department, and the National Security Council. This lack of coordination explains why the plan feels so... disjointed.

Frankly, the plan's messy origins and the flawed process behind it explain the messy contents. In its original form, it would have been a terrible deal for Ukraine. The fact that Kyiv would have to surrender so...