U.S. & Israel Strike Iran: Is This the Brink of All-Out War?!

As U.S. and Israel trade blows with Iran, what’s next? The situation in the Middle East feels like it’s teetering on the edge of something much bigger. Questions are swirling about the potential for regime change in Iran, but experts warn that Iranian attacks on Israel are likely to continue in the coming days. With both sides vowing to keep up the pressure, concerns are rightfully mounting about a wider regional conflict and, frankly, what the future of Iran even looks like after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in Saturday's attacks.

U.S. & Israel Strike Iran: Is This the Brink of Al...

“If you don't put boots on the ground, who does (U.S. President) Donald Trump think the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is going to hand its weapons to?” asked Jon Allen, a senior fellow at the Bill Graham Centre for Contemporary International History at the University of Toronto. “Regime change? Up in the air.” It's a valid point. Regime change isn't as simple as wishing it into existence. There are complexities and power dynamics at play that external forces can only influence so much.

On Sunday, Trump upped the ante, urging Iran's Revolutionary Guard and military police to lay down their arms or face "dire consequences." It's strong rhetoric, no doubt intended to apply pressure. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced that a new leadership council had already begun its work, signaling an attempt at a quick transition. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi even stated that a new supreme leader would be chosen in "one or two days." It's clear the Iranian government is trying to project an image of stability, even amidst chaos.

But will it work? Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., believes the regime is cornered. "(The regime is) going to do its best to retaliate to the degree it can, in order to do two things," he said. "One is to show that the regime can inflict damage on its adversaries, and number two, to show that the region is still in control. It's really a fight for survival of the regime and for inflicting as much damage as the regime can in order to change the calculus of its adversaries." It’s a desperate gambit, and desperation can be dangerous.

Despite the external turmoil and internal political maneuvering, reports indicate that protesters inside Iran are remaining defiant. Many are even celebrating Khamenei's death, a testament to the deep-seated resentment towards the current regime. While an end to the current regime remains uncertain, Burcu Ozcelik of the Royal United Services Institute suggested a potential goal: "The goal of trying to create the conditions on the ground inside Iran whereby an alternative form of government might emerge at least for the transition period until Iran achieves some level of stabilization." A stable transition would be ideal, but is it realistic given the current circumstances?

The U.S. and Israel aren't showing any signs of slowing down. Israel announced a "non-stop air train" of strikes against Iranian military and leadership targets, and Trump has stated that heavy bombing will continue "uninterrupted throughout the week or, as long as necessary." Israel's ambassador to Canada, Iddo Moed, told Global News that the operation's objective was to eliminate "existential threats" from Iran. He also suggested that assistance could be provided to Iranians to facilitate regime change, a sentiment echoed by Trump on Truth Social. "I call upon all the radiant patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment to be brave, be bold, be heroic, and take back your country," Trump said. "America is with you. I made a promise to you, and I fulfilled that promise. The rest will be up to you, but we'll be there to help." Trump didn't specify how the U.S. would provide assistance, leaving that crucial detail shrouded in ambiguity. It remains to be seen what form that "help" will actually take, and whether it will truly empower the Iranian people or further destabilize the region.