Texas Senate Race: Shocking Poll Numbers Emerge Just Before Primary!

Texas Senate Race: Shocking Poll Numbers Emerge Just Before Primary!
Politics 01 March 2026

AUSTIN, Texas – The Texas political landscape is buzzing with activity as the primary elections loom just days away. The Senate race, in particular, has become a battleground, with candidates making their final, desperate pitches to voters. And believe me, having lived here for years, I can tell you, the air is thick with anticipation – and a healthy dose of Texas-sized political drama.

Texas Senate Race: Shocking Poll Numbers Emerge Ju...

Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, a fixture in Texas politics since his initial election in 2002, finds himself in the fight of his career. He's facing challenges from two prominent figures: the controversial but popular Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn, ever the seasoned politician, is trying to walk a fine line, appealing to his established base while also acknowledging the changing tides within the Republican party.

"Complacency is a killer," Cornyn warned at a recent campaign stop in The Woodlands, a Houston suburb. "It kills relationships. It kills careers." A sentiment he clearly hopes resonates with voters. But will it be enough to fend off the challenges from his right?

Meanwhile, Democrats are cautiously optimistic. They haven’t won a Senate seat in Texas since 1988 (a fact that haunts them, I suspect), but see a glimmer of opportunity, especially if Paxton wins the Republican nomination. His legal troubles and association with the more extreme elements of the GOP could alienate moderate voters. State Rep. James Talarico, presenting himself as a bipartisan bridge-builder, is vying for the Democratic nomination against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has gained national recognition for her outspoken presence on Capitol Hill and boasts a recent endorsement from former VP Kamala Harris.

This race is expensive, folks. Really expensive. AdImpact reports that advertising costs and reserved ad time have already topped $110 million, a record for a Texas Senate primary. That's a lot of money trying to sway opinions, and it highlights just how much is at stake.

Adding another layer to the intrigue, former President Donald Trump made a late appearance in Texas, using the Port of Corpus Christi as the setting for a speech on energy policy. All the major Republican Senate hopefuls were there, vying for his attention and, crucially, his endorsement. While Trump hinted he was "pretty much" decided, he held back from officially endorsing anyone. Praising both Paxton and Cornyn, he acknowledged the competitive nature of the race, saying, "It's going to be an interesting one, right? They're both great people." A very Trumpian way of playing it safe, if you ask me.

Paxton, despite being a long-time figure in Texas politics, is attempting to portray himself as a Washington outsider. "I'm not going up to Washington, D.C., to join the swamp club," he declared in Fort Worth. "I will go up there and fight for you." It's a familiar message, but one that clearly resonates with a segment of the Texas electorate. Tuesday's primary will be a crucial test to see if that message, and indeed the entire campaign strategies, can translate into votes.

S
Editor
Sarah Anderson

Political analyst and reporter with extensive experience in government and policy coverage.

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