Galatasaray's Champions League Fortune: Is Group Stage Glory Guaranteed?!

Galatasaray, affectionately nicknamed "Aslan" (The Lion), finds itself in a peculiar position as they head to Manchester tonight for their Champions League clash against Man City. Kick-off's at 11:00 PM Turkish time, and while facing Pep Guardiola's squad is always a daunting prospect, Galatasaray can breathe a little easier knowing their chances of making the last 16 are looking remarkably good – even if they don’t roar to victory at the Etihad.

Galatasaray's Champions League Fortune: Is Group S...

That's right, even a loss tonight could see them through. Let's be honest, that's a pretty sweet situation to be in. The new Champions League format, with its expanded 36-team league phase, has seemingly worked in Galatasaray's favor this time around. They’re currently sitting pretty and, frankly, it would take a truly monumental series of upsets for them to be knocked out at this stage with 10 points already secured. To put it in perspective, we're talking about needing eight out of nine completely unlikely results to go against them.

Now, let's delve into the specifics. The improbable doomsday scenario for Galatasaray requires a cascade of unexpected results. I'm talking Copenhagen needing to pull off a shock victory against Barcelona at the Camp Nou. Napoli needing to conquer Chelsea. And Olympiacos needing to raid Amsterdam and emerge victorious against Ajax. Add to that Athletic Bilbao defeating Sporting, PSV Eindhoven upsetting Bayern Munich at home, and Bayer Leverkusen needing to at least draw with Villareal. Monaco then need to avoid defeat against Juventus, Marseille need to get a result against Club Brugge away (or Brugge win big), and Qarabag require points at Anfield against Liverpool.

Talk about specific. Frankly, I'd be more surprised if all of those happened than if I won the lottery. I suspect Galatasaray's manager, Okan Buruk, isn't spending too much time worrying about that particular combination of events unfolding, and instead focusing on the match in front of them.

And that match against Manchester City? Well, the good news for the Turkish side is that City aren't exactly at full strength. Rodri is suspended, which is a massive blow to their midfield, and Guehi is absent from the squad. Add to that the injury concerns surrounding the likes of Semenyo, Nico Gonzalez, Savinho, and Stones, and suddenly City look a little less invincible. Galatasaray will be looking to exploit those weaknesses, no doubt about it.

Boosted by a solid European campaign so far, Galatasaray’s confidence is high. They’ve only lost 5 of their last 17 European matches, recording six wins and six draws. That's the kind of form that gives a team belief, and you can bet they'll be heading to Manchester with the intention of grabbing all three points, irrespective of their comfortable position in the group. Even if they don't, it's looking like "Tur cebinde, Aslan rahat" – the Lion’s got the tour in his pocket, and he's feeling relaxed.